TREATMENT FOR CASE OF DEFAULT OF LIFE INSURANCE UNDER CAPITALIZATION REGIME IN THE BRAZILIAN MARKET USING THE ANALYTIC HIERARCHY PROCESS

##plugins.themes.bootstrap3.article.main##

##plugins.themes.bootstrap3.article.sidebar##

Published Apr 1, 2025
Jose Fabiano da Serra Costa Beatriz Maços Caseira

Abstract

The Brazilian insurance market is growing, even if it is still incipient compared to many international markets. Although economic issues end up partially inhibiting this activity, insurance in general and particularly life insurance can be considered a financial investment for the general population. However, insurance default in the Brazilian market is a serious problem and, as such, requires analysis and action. This article aims to use the Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) to select an alternative that best meets the needs of an independent insurer to deal with cases of default on life insurance under a capitalization regime and, at the same time, remain within legal standards and deliver the best service to its customers. The fundamental concepts, methodology, results and analysis are presented in this article.

How to Cite

da Serra Costa, J. F., & Caseira, B. M. (2025). TREATMENT FOR CASE OF DEFAULT OF LIFE INSURANCE UNDER CAPITALIZATION REGIME IN THE BRAZILIAN MARKET USING THE ANALYTIC HIERARCHY PROCESS. International Journal of the Analytic Hierarchy Process, 17(1). https://doi.org/10.13033/ijahp.v17i1.1259

Downloads

Download data is not yet available.
Abstract 94 | PDF Downloads 63

##plugins.themes.bootstrap3.article.details##

Keywords

Life insurance, Insurance default, AHP

References
Akhisar, I., & Tunay, N. (2015). Performance ranking of Turkish life insurance companies using AHP and TOPSIS. MIC 2015: Managing Sustainable Growth; Proceedings of the Joint International Conference, Portorož, Slovenia, May 28-30, University of Primorska, Faculty of Management Koper.

Amirabadi, S., & Univarsity, A. (2011). A mathematical method for preventing inconsistency in decision maker’s comparisons. Proceedings of XI Symposium of Analytic Hierarchy/Network Process. Sorrento, Naples (Italy).

Andawaningtyas, K., Ardiyani, E., & Karim, C. (2022). Analysis of insurance customer factors to renewal using Hybrid AHP-FTOPSIS. Cauchy: Jurnal Matematika Murni dan Aplikasi, 7(2), 220-230. https://doi.org/10.18860/ca.v7i2.13356

Araújo, R. L. B. (2021). Private management of social security in Brazil, under the capitalization regime. [Master’s dissertation, FGV - Fundação Getúlio Vargas, RJ, Brazil]. https://hdl.handle.net/10438/32763

Arena, M. (2008). Does insurance market activity promote economic growth? A cross‐country study for industrialized and developing countries. Journal of Risk and Insurance, 75(4), 921-946. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1539-6975.2008.00291.x

Barbosa, N. P., dos Santos, I. M., de Carvalho K. V. D., & Pereira, G. A. (2023). The default of Brazilian families: an analysis of economic factors. Cadernos de Estudos Interdisciplinares, 5(1), 53-68. http://publicacoes.unifal-mg.edu.br/revistas/index.php/cei/article/view/2024

Barucci, E., Colozza, T., Marazzina, D., & Rroji, E. (2020). The determinants of lapse rates in the Italian life insurance market. European Actuarial Journal, 10, 149-178. https://doi.org/10.1007/s13385-020-00227-0

Braun, A., Fischer, M., & Schmeiser, H. (2019). How to derive optimal guarantee levels in participating life insurance contracts. Journal of Risk Finance, 20(5), 445-469. https://doi.org/10.1108/JRF-07-2018-0099

Cavallo, B., Ishizaka, A., Olivieri, M. G., & Squillante, M. (2019). Comparing inconsistency of pairwise comparison matrices depending on entries. Journal of the Operational Research Society, 70(5), 842-850. https://doi.org/10.1080/01605682.2018.1464427

Cavallo, B., D'Apuzzo, L., & Squillante, M. (2012). About a consistency index for pairwise comparison matrices over a divisible alo‐group. International Journal of Intelligent Systems, 27(2), 153-175. https://doi.org/10.1002/int.21518

Castro, A. (2004). The insurance sector and relationship marketing. [Master’s thesis Escola Brasileira de Administração Pública e de Empresas, Fundação Getúlio Vargas, RJ, Brazil] https://repositorio.fgv.br/server/api/core/bitstreams/73fdb19a-aa5b-4d06-9839-789cb289e88f/content

Cheng, C., & Li, J. (2018). Early default risk and surrender risk: Impacts on participating life insurance policies. Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, 78, 30-43. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.insmatheco.2017.11.001

CNseg. National Confederation of Insurers. (2023). Setor segurador crescera acima de 10% em 2023 e 2024. https://cnseg.org.br/noticias/c-nseg-setor-segurador-crescera-acima-de-10-em-2023-e-2024

Coe, N. B., Belbase, A., & Wu, A. Y. (2016). Overcoming barriers to life insurance coverage: A behavioral approach. Risk Management and Insurance Review, 19(2), 307-336. https://doi.org/10.1111/rmir.12064

Darko, A., Chan, A. P. C., Ameyaw, E. E., Owusu, E. K., Pärn, E., & Edwards, D. J. (2018). Review of application of Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) in construction. International Journal of Construction Management, 19(5), 436-452. https://doi.org/10.1080/15623599.2018.1452098

Daros, M., & Pinto, N. G. M. (2017). Delinquency in Brazil: an analysis of empirical evidence. IMED Journal of Administration, 7(1), 208-229. http://dx.doi.org/10.18256/2237-7956/raimed.v7n1p208-229

Dawar, V. K., Singh, P., & Uppal, K. K. (2022). Determinants’ hierarchy of decision for life insurance on digital platform: an Analytical Hierarchy Process approach. IPE Journal of Management, 12(2), 9-19.

Dogan, O. (2021). Process mining technology selection with spherical fuzzy AHP and sensitivity analysis. Expert Systems with Applications, 178, 114999. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.eswa.2021.114999

Dweiri, F., Kumar, S., Khan, S. A., & Jain, V. (2016). Designing an integrated AHP based decision support system for supplier selection in automotive industry. Expert Systems with Applications, 62, 273-283. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.eswa.2016.06.030

Emrouznejad, A, & Marra, M. (2017). The state of the art development of AHP (1979–2017): A literature review with a social network analysis. International Journal of Production Research, 55(22), 6653-6675. https://doi.org/10.1080/00207543.2017.1334976

Fang, H., & Kung, E. (2021). Why do life insurance policyholders lapse? The roles of income, health, and bequest motive shocks. Journal of Risk and Insurance, 88(4), 937-970. https://doi.org/10.1111/jori.12332

Forman E., & Peniwati, K. (1998). Aggregating individual judgments and priorities with the Analytic Hierarchy Process. European Journal of Operational Research, n.108, 165-169. https://doi.org/10.1016/S0377-2217(97)00244-0

García-Cascales, M. S., & Lamata, M. T. (2012). On rank reversal and TOPSIS method. Mathematical and Computer Modelling, 56(5-6), 123-132. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.mcm.2011.12.022

Haviluddin, H., Budiman , E., & Ramadhan , R. (2022). Implementation of the Analytical Hierarchy Process method and Multi Objective Optimization on the basis of ratio analysis in the selection of insurance products. International Journal of Advanced Science and Computer Applications, 1(1), 41-50. https://doi.org/10.47679/ijasca.v1i1.8

Hinduja, A., & Pandey, M. (2018). An intuitionistic fuzzy AHP based multi criteria recommender system for life insurance products. International Journal of Advanced Studies in Computers, Science and Engineering, 7(1), 1-8.

Ho, C. C., Huang, C., & Ou, C. Y. (2018). Analysis of the factors influencing sustainable development in the insurance industry. Corporate Social Responsibility and Environmental Management, 25(4), 391-410. https://doi.org/10.1002/csr.1467

Hu, S., O’Hagan, A., Sweeney, J., & Ghahramani, M. (2021). A spatial machine learning model for analysing customers’ lapse behaviour in life insurance. Annals of Actuarial Science, 15(2), 367-393. https://doi.org/10.1017/S1748499520000329

Ikeda, M. M. S., & Carvalho, J. V. F. (2022). Feasibility of universal life in Brazil from the perspective of supply and demand for life insurance. Revista Contabilidade e Finanças, USP, São Paulo, 33(89), 343-358. https://doi.org/10.1590/1808-057x202113720

Kaftandzieva, T., & Cvetkoska, V. (2021). Financial decision making among young adults: an AHP approach. International Journal of the Analytic Hierarchy Process, 13(3), 458-482. https://doi.org/10.13033/ijahp.v13i3.864

Konomura, K., Hoshino, E., Sakai, K., Fukuda, T., & Tajima, G. (2023). Development of a model for quantitative assessment of newborn screening in Japan using the Analytic Hierarchy Process. International Journal of Neonatal Screening, 9(3), 39. https://doi.org/10.3390/ijns9030039

Leite, I. M. S., & Freitas, F. F. T. (2012). Análise comparativa dos métodos de apoio multicritério a decisão: AHP, ELECTRE e PROMETHEE. XXXII Encontro Nacional de Engenharia de Produção. Bento Gonçalves.

Lin, J. H., Li, X., & Huang, F. W. (2018). Insurer interest margin management, default risk, and life insurance policyholder protection. Journal of Modelling in Management, 13(3), 718-735. https://doi.org/10.1108/JM2-12-2017-0140

Lyons, P. & Demaster, B. (2015, March 25). How life insurers can bring their business into the 21st century. Harvard Business Review. https://hbr.org/2015/03/how-life-insurers-can-bring-their-business-into-the-21st-century

Malhotra, V. A., Lee, M. D., & Khurana, (2007). Domain experts influence decision quality: towards a robust method for their identification. Journal of Petroleum Science and Engineering, 57, 181-194. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.petrol.2005.09.007

Mimović, P., Jakšić, M., & Todorović, V. (2017). Choice of life insurance companies by using analytic hierarchy process: Experience of the Republic of Serbia. Journal of Insurance and Financial Management, 3(1), 1-18.

Moslem, S., Saraji, M. K., Mardani, A., Alkharabsheh, A., Duleba S., &. Esztergár-Kiss, D. (2023). A systematic review of Analytic Hierarchy Process applications to solve transportation problems: from 2003 to 2022. IEEE Access, 11, 11973-11990. https://doi.org/10.1109/ACCESS.2023.3234298

Mulholland, B. S., & Finke, M. S. (2023). Cognitive ability impact on life insurance lapsation. Financial Services Review, 31(1), 73-96. https://doi.org/10.61190/fsr.v31i1.3196

Nabavi, S. R., Wang, Z., & Rangaiah, G. P. (2023). Sensitivity analysis of multi-criteria decision-making methods for engineering applications. Industrial & Engineering Chemistry Research, 62(17), 6707-6722. https://doi.org/10.1021/acs.iecr.2c04270

Nugroho, W. R., & Marzuki, Y. (2024). Legal protection for consumers of unit link life insurance products. International Journal of Social Science, Education, Communication and Economics, 2(6), 1693-1702. https://doi.org/10.54443/sj.v2i6.260

Pant, S., Kumar, A., Ram, M., Klochkov, Y., & Sharma, H. K. (2022). Consistency indices in Analytic Hierarchy Process: a review. Mathematics, 10(8), 1206. https://doi.org/10.3390/math10081206

Petrillo, A., Salomon, V. A. P., & Tramarico, C. L. (2023). State-of-the-art review on the Analytic Hierarchy Process with benefits, opportunities, costs, and risks. Journal of Risk Financial Management, 16, 372. https://doi.org/10.3390/jrfm16080372

Raišienė, A. G., & Raišys, S. J. (2022). Business customer satisfaction with B2B consulting services: AHP-based criteria for a new perspective. Sustainability, 14, 7437. https://doi.org/10.3390/su14127437

Rodrigues, W. T. (2019). Sale of life insurance in Brazil. [Master’s thesis, Escola Brasileira de Administração Pública e de Empresas, Fundação Getúlio Vargas, SP, Brazil]. https://hdl.handle.net/10438/27396

Romero-Ramos, J. A., Gil, J. D., Cardemil, J. M., Escobar, R. A., Arias, I., & Pérez-García, M. (2023). A GIS-AHP approach for determining the potential of solar energy to meet the thermal demand in southeastern Spain productive enclaves. Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, 176, 113205. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.rser.2023.113205

Saeedpoor, M., Vafadarnikjoo, A., Mobin, M., & Rastegari, A. (2015). A SERVQUAL model approach integrated with fuzzy AHP and fuzzy TOPSIS methodologies to rank life insurance firms. Proceedings of the American Society for Engineering Management 2015. Vol 1.

Saaty, T. L. (1977). A scaling method for priorities in hierarchical structures. Journal of Mathematical Psychology, 15, 234-281. https://doi.org/10.1016/0022-2496(77)90033-5

Saaty, T. L. (1980). The Analytic Hierarchy Process. New York: McGraw-Hill.

Saaty, T. L. (2001). Decision making for leaders: The Analytic Hierarchy Process for decisions in a complex world. Pittsburgh, PA: RWS Publications.

Santri, S. H., Yaswirman, Y., Warman, K., & Fauzi, W. (2022). Default unitlink-based life insurance company in Indonesia. Proceeding International Conference on Malay Identity, 3, 218-227. http://www.conference.unja.ac.id/ICMI/article/view/219

Schoner, B., & Wedley, W. C. (1989). Ambiguous criteria weigth in AHP: consequences and solutions. Decision Sciences, 20, 462-475, 1989. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1540-5915.1989.tb01561.x

Serasa Experian (2024). Map of default and debt negotiation in Brazil. https://www.serasa.com.br/limpa-nome-online/blog/mapa-da-inadimplencia-e-renogociacao-de-dividas-no-brasil

Serra Costa, J. F. da (2011). A genetic algorithm to obtain consistency in analytic hierarchy process. Brazilian Journal of Operations & Production Management, 8(1), 55-64. https://bjopm.org.br/bjopm/article/view/V8N1A4

Shamsuddin, S. N., Ismail, N., & Roslan, N. F. (2022). What we know about research on life insurance lapse: A bibliometric analysis. Risks, 10(5), 97. https://doi.org/10.3390/risks10050097

Silva, S. E. P. (2022). Insurance, pension plans and capitalization. São Paulo, Brazil: Editora Senac.

Silva, F. L., Peris, R. W., Chan, B. L., & Borelli, E. (2015). Evolution of the insurance market and economic growth in Brazil. Redeca, 2(2), 21-36. https://doi.org/10.23925/2446-9513.2015v2i2p21-36

Sooksaksun, N. & Chanta, S. (2023). Application of Analytic Hierarchy Process in decision making of processed banana products for community enterprises. International Journal of the Analytic Hierarchy Process, 15(2), 1-21. https://doi.org/10.13033/ijahp.v15i2.1091

Souza, M. L. M. (2017). General theory of insurance. Rio de Janeiro, Funenseg: Brazil.

SUSEP. Superintendence of Private Insurance. (2022a). About SUSEP. https://www.gov.br/susep/pt-br/acesso-a-informacao/institucional/sobre-a-susep

SUSEP. Superintendence of Private Insurance. (2022b). Basic Legislation. https://www2.susep.gov.br/safe/scripts/bnweb/bnmapi.exe?router=upload/26148

SUSEP. Superintendence of Private Insurance. (2022c). Subjects/My Secure Future. https://www.gov.br/susep/pt-br/assuntos/meu-futuro-seguro/seguros-previdencia-e-capitalizacao/seguros/seguro-vgbl-vrgp-vagp-vrsa-vri-dotal/explicacao

SUSEP. Superintendence of Private Insurance. (2023). Guidance and Defense Guide for the Insured. https://www2.susep.gov.br/download/cartilha/cartilha_susep2e.pdf

SUSEP. Superintendence of Private Insurance. (2024a). Archives/Archives-statistical-data/Monthly syntheses/2024. https://www.gov.br/susep/pt-br/arquivos/arquivos-dados-estatisticos/sinteses-mensais/2024/SnteseMensalMaiode2024final1.pdf

SUSEP. Superintendence of Private Insurance. (2024b). Content Center. https://www.gov.br/susep/pt-br/central-de-conteudos/noticias/2024/fevereiro/setor-de-seguros-cresce-9-em-2023-e-supera-r-380-bilhoes-arrecadados

Toshmurzaevich, Y. O. (2020). Developing the underwriting process in life insurance, European Journal of Business and Management Research, 5(6), 1-5. https://doi.org/10.24018/ejbmr.2020.5.6.657

Vargas, L. G. (1982). Reciprocal matrices with random coefficients. Mathematical Modelling, 3, 69-81. https://doi.org/10.1016/0270-0255(82)90013-6

Wang, Y., & Luo, Y. (2009). On rank reversal in decision analysis. Mathematical and Computer Modelling, 49(5-6), 1221-1229. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.mcm.2008.06.019

Wang, Z. L., Kim, J., Selvachandran, G., Smarandache, F., Abdel-Basset, M., Thong, P. H., & Ismail, M. (2019). Decision making methods for evaluation of efficiency of general insurance companies in Malaysia: A comparative study. IEEE Access, 7, 160637-160649. https://doi.org/10.1109/ACCESS.2019.2950455

Wang, X., & Triantaphyllou, E. (2008). Ranking irregularities when evaluating alternatives by using some ELECTRE methods, Omega, 36, 45-63. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.omega.2005.12.003

Yu, L., Cheng, J. & Lin, T. (2019). Life insurance lapse behaviour: evidence from China. The Geneva Papers on Risk and Insurance: Issues and Practice, 44, 653–678. https://doi.org/10.1057/s41288-018-0104-5



Section
Articles