Published Dec 19, 2021
Ana Krstic
Predrag Mimovic


The acquisition of full membership for the Republic of Serbia in the European Union depends on a large number of factors. The combined and synergistic effect of these factors has made the process of Serbia's accession to the European Union extremely uncertain in terms of date and final outcome. The new reality, including the COVID-19 pandemic, U.S. isolationist policies during President Trump's tenure, the strengthening of China and Russia, and Britain's exit from the EU, has made this process even more uncertain. In this context, it is crucial to identify and prioritize key factors that affect or could affect the process of Serbia's accession to the European Union, in order to evaluate the possible outcomes of this process. To solve problems of this level of complexity and uncertainty, it is necessary to apply an interdisciplinary approach of the appropriate level of complexity. Therefore, this paper is an extension of previous research (Krstic et al, 2018; Mimovic et al, 2019) based on the defined research goal, but incorporates a complex, network model called theAnalytical Network Process, which included new circumstances that determine what is colloquially called the new reality. All calculations in the paper were performed using the software package SuperDecisions as computer support for the Analytical Network Process.

How to Cite

Krstic, A., & Mimovic, P. (2021). THE IMPACT OF THE NEW GLOBAL REALITY ON THE EUROPEAN INTEGRATION PROCESS: THE CASE OF THE REPUBLIC OF SERBIA. International Journal of the Analytic Hierarchy Process, 13(3).


Download data is not yet available.
Abstract 751 | PDF Downloads 358



European integration, new global reality, forecast, date of EU accession, analytical network process, Republic of Serbia

Adamus, W. (2010). When shall Poland enter the euro zone? Decision making with the ANP.The School of Business, 1, 31-52.

Azis, I.J. (2003). Analytic Network Process with feedback influence: A new approach to impact study.Prepared for a seminar organized by the Department of Urban and Regional Planning, University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign, in conjunction with the Investiture Ceremony for Professor John Kim, 1-22.

Azis, I. J. (2010). Predicting a recovery date from the economic crisis of 2008.Socio-Economic Planning Sciences, 44(3), 122-129. Doi:

Blair, A. R., Mandelker, G. N., Saaty, T. L., & Whitaker, R. (2010).Forecasting the resurgence of the US economy in 2010: An expert judgment approach.Socio-Economic Planning Sciences, 44(3), 114-121.Doi:

Bongardt, A. & Torres, F. (2020). Lessons from the coronavirus crisis for European integration. Intereconomics, Review of European Policy, 55(3), 130-131. Doi:

Bonomi, M., Merja, A., Toglhofer, T. & Reljić, D. (2020). Make or break moment: EU enlargement in Southeast Europe in pandemic thimes. Policy paper, Friedrich Ebert Stiftung, 1-29.

Coronavirusdisease (COVID-19). Available at:

Dikmen, I., Talat, B., Ozorhon, B., & Egilmezer Sapci, N. (2010). Using analytic network process to assess business failure risks of construction firms.Engineering, Construction and Architectural Management, 17(4), 369-386. Doi:

Eraqi, A. & Shoura, W. (2019). A model proposed for the prediction of Future sustainable residence specifications using Analytical Network Process.International Journal on Environmental Science and Sustainable Development, 109-126. Doi:

European Council. (2015). Normalisation of relations between Serbia and Kosovo, Chapter 35: Other issues. Conference on Accession to the European Union–Serbia–Brussels, 30 November 2015, 1-8.

European Commission. (2020). Communication from the Commission to the European Parlament, the Council, the European Economic and Social Committee and the Committee of the Regions. 2020 Communication on EU Enlargement Policy, Brussels, 1-66.

European Parliament resolution of 25 November 2020 on the foreign policy consequences of the COVID-19 outbreak. Available at:

Huang, C., Wang, Y. & Li, X. (2020). Clinical features of patients infected with 2019 novel coronavirus in Wuhan, China. Lancet, 395(10223), 497–506. Doi:

Hulle, J., Kaspar, R.& Moller, K. (2013). Analytic network process - An overview of applications in research and practice.International Journal of Operational Research, 16(2), 172-213. Doi:

Jayant, A., Paul, V. & Kumar, U. (2015). Application of Analytic Network Process (ANP) in business environment: A comprehensive literature review. International Journal of Research in Mechanical Engineering & Technology, 5(1), 29-37.

Kheybari, S., Fariba, M. &Farazmand, H. (2020). Analytic network process: An overview of applications. Applied Mathematics and Computation, 367, 1-35.Doi: 10.1016/j.amc.2019.124780

Krstic A., Savic, J. & P. (2018). Forecasting the accession of the Republic of Serbia to the European Union by using the Analytic Network Process, XIII Balkan Conference on Operational Research, BALCOR 2018, 25-28 May, Belgrade, Proceedings, 262-269

Koenig, N.& Stahl, A. (2020). How the coronavirus pandemic affects the EU’s geopolitical agenda. Policy paper, Hertie School, Jacques Delors Centre, 1-16.

Mimovic, P. (2012). Application of analytical network process in forecasting automobile sales of Fiat 500 L. Economic Horizons, 165-176. Doi: 10.5937/ekonhor1203165M

Mimovic, P., Krstic, A. & Savic, J. (2019). Serbia joining the European Union: an ANP model for forecasting date.International Journal of the Analytic Hierarchy Process, 11(1), 2-19. Doi:

Mu, E. (2006).A unified framework for site selection and business forecasting using ANP. Journal of Systems Science and Systems Engineering, 15, 178–188. Doi:
Mu, E.& Pereyra-Rojas, M. (2018). Practical decision making using Super Decisions v3.An Introduction to the Analytic Hierarchy Process.Springer.

Niemira, M. P. & Saaty, T. L. (2004). An analytic network process model for financial-crisis forecasting. International Journal of Forecasting, 20(4), 573-587. Doi: 10.1016/j.ijforecast.2003.09.013

Ozorhon, B., Dikmen, I. & Birgonul, M. T. (2007).Using analytic network process to predict the performance of international construction joint ventures. Journal of Management in Engineering, 23(3), 156-163. Doi:

Radyshevskaya, T.N. & Andreichicova, O.N. (2010). Use of analytic network process in forecasting occurrence of dental diseases, Journal of VolgSMU,33(1), 44-47.

Roloff, R. (2020). COVID-19 and no one’s world: What impact for the European Union? Connections QJ, 19(2), 25-36. Doi:

Saaty, T.L. & Kearns, K. P. (1985). Analytical planning: The organization of systems, The Analytic Hierarchy Process Series, Vol. IV. Pittsburgh, PA: RWS Publications.

Saaty, T. L. (1999). Fundamentals of the analytic network process.Proceedings of the 5th International Symposium on the Analytic Hierarchy Process, 12-14.

Saaty, T. L. (2001a). Analytic Network Process .Encyclopedia of Operations Research and Management Science, 28-35.

Saaty, T. L. (2001b). Decision making with the analytic network process (ANP) and its “super-decisions” software the national missile defense (NMD) example. ISAHP 2001 Berne, Switzerland, 365-382.

Saaty, T. L. (2001c). Decision making with dependence and feedback: The ANP. Pittsburgh, PA: RWS Publications.

Saaty, T. L., & Vargas, L. G. (2006).Decision making with the Analytic Network Process.Economic, political, social and technological applications with Benefits, Opportunities, Costs and Risks. Springer US.

Saaty, T.L. & Peniwati, K. (2008).Group decision making: Drawing out and reconciling differences. Pittsburgh, PA: RWS Publications.

Saaty, T. L., & Vargas, L. G. (2013). Decision making with the Analytic Network Process. Economic, political, social and technological applications with Benefits, Opportunities, Costs and Risks, 2nd edition. Springer US.

Shih, H. S., Lee, E. S., Chuang, S. H. & Chen, C. C. (2012). A forecasting decision on the sales volume of printers in Taiwan: An exploitation of the Analytic Network Process. Computers & Mathematics with Applications, 64(6), 1545-1556. Doi:

Vargas, L. G. (1990). An overview of the analytic hierarchy process and its applications. European Journal of Operational Research, 48(1), 2-8. Doi:

Voulgaridou, D., Kirytopoulos, K., & Leopoulos, V. (2009). An analytic network process approach for sales forecasting. Operational Research, 9(1), 35-53. Doi:

Wang, C., Horby, P., Hayden, F. & Gao, G. (2020). A novel coronavirus outbreak of global health concern. Lancet, 395(10223), 470–473. Doi: