For the Republic of Serbia to acquire full membership in the European Union depends on a large number of factors, and it is very difficult to predict whether the country will attain membership and when it will happen. This paper first describes the Analytic Network Process (ANP), which is then applied to predict the most probable date of the Republic of Serbia's entry into the European Union taking into account the economic, political and legal conditions that the Republic must fulfill in the stabilization and association process. The model is based on negotiating chapters that are considered crucial in the process of Eurointegration and their interactions and relationships. The work is an extensive and improved version of the paper titled "Forecasting the accession of the Republic of Serbia to the European Union by using the Analytic Network Process" (Krsti? et al., 2018). It is based on the complex network model of the Analytic Network Process, which encompasses not only multiple clusters and their elements, as well as their external and internal networks of influence, but in particular the impact of alternatives on relevant factors. All calculations were performed using the SuperDecisions software package.
Eurointegration, forecasting, accession date, Analytic Network Process, Republic of Serbia
Azis, I. J. (2010). Predicting a recovery date from the economic crisis of 2008. Socio-Economic Planning Sciences, 44(3), 122-129. Doi: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.seps.2010.03.003
Blair, A. R., Mandelker, G. N., Saaty, T. L., & Whitaker, R. (2010). Forecasting the resurgence of the US economy in 2010: An expert judgment approach. Socio-Economic Planning Sciences, 44(3), 114-121. Doi: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.seps.2010.03.002
Chung, C-C., Chao, L-C., Lou, S-J. (2016). Constructing the predictive model for strategy execution problems -The application of the two-stage Analytic Network Process. Journal of Information Hiding and Multimedia Signal Processing, 7(1), 184-197.
Dikmen, I., Talat Birgonul, M., Ozorhon, B., & Egilmezer Sapci, N. (2010). Using analytic network process to assess business failure risks of construction firms. Engineering, Construction and Architectural Management, 17(4), 369-386. Doi: https://doi.org/10.1108/09699981011056574
EU Info Centar. (2014). Negotiation chapters - 35 steps towards the European Union, http://euinfo.rs/srbija-i-eu/
EU Info Centar. (2015). Negotiation chapters - 35 steps towards the European Union. Drugo, revised edition: http://euinfo.rs/srbija-i-eu/
European Council. (2015). Normalisation of relations between Serbia and Kosovo, Chapter 35: Other issues. Conference on accession to the European Union–Serbia– Brussels, 1-8.
European Council Conclusions (2015). Madrid European Council, Reproduced from the Bulletin of the European Communities, No. 12/1995.
European Security Strategy (2004). A Secure Europe in a Better World, Internet, 11/06/2004, http://www.iue.eu.int/cms3_fo/showpage.asp?id=391&lang=en
Krsti? A., Savi?, J., Mimovi?, P. (2018). Forecasting the accession of the Republic Serbia to the European Union by using Analytic Network Process, XIII Balkan Conference on Operational Research, BALCOR 2018, 25-28.may, Belgrade, Proceedings, Mladenovi?, N., Marti?, M., Vidovi?, M., Uroševi?, D. 243-250, ISBN: 978-86-80593-64-7
Mimovi?, P. (2012). Application of ANP in forecasting automobile sales of FIAT 500L, Economic Horizons, 14(3), 169-179. Doi: https://doi.org/10.5937/ekonhor1203165m
Niemira, M. P., & Saaty, T. L. (2004). An analytic network process model for financial-crisis forecasting. International Journal of Forecasting, 20(4), 573-587. Doi: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ijforecast.2003.09.013
Ozorhon, B., Dikmen, I., Birgonul, M. T. (2007). Using analytic network process to predict the performance of international construction joint ventures. Journal of Management in Engineering, 23(3), 156-163.
Popa, A., Hadad, S., Paiusan, R. & Nastase, M. (2018). A new method for agricultural market share assessment. Sustainability, 11(88), 1-13. Doi: https://doi.org/10.3390/su11010088
Saaty, T.L., Kearns, K. P. (1985). Analytical Planning: The organization of systems, The Analytic Hierarchy Process Series. Pittsburgh: RWS Publications.
Saaty, T. L. (1999). Fundamentals of the analytic network process. Proceedings of the 5th International Symposium on the Analytic Hierarchy Process, 12-14.
Saaty, T. L. (2001a). Analytic network process. Encyclopedia of Operations Research and Management Science, 28-35. Doi: https://doi.org/10.1007/1-4020-0611-x_32
Saaty, T. L. (2001b). Decision making with the analytic network process (ANP) and its “super-decisions” software the national missile defense (NMD) exANPle. ISAHP 2001, Berne, Switzerland, 365-382.
Saaty, T. L. (2001c). Decision making with dependence and feedback: The ANP. Pittsburgh: RWS Publications.
Saaty, T. L., & Vargas, L. G. (2006). Decision making with the Analytic Network Process. Economic, political, social and technological applications with benefits, opportunities, costs and risks. New York: Springer.
Saaty, T.L., Peniwati, K. (2008). Group decision making: Drawing out and reconciling differences. Pittsburgh, PA: RWS Publications.
Saaty, T. L., & Vargas, L. G. (2013). Decision making with the Analytic Network Process. Economic, political, social and technological applications with benefits, opportunities, costs and risks. 2nd edition. New York: Springer.
Shih, H. S., Lee, E. S., Chuang, S. H., & Chen, C. C. (2012). A forecasting decision on the sales volume of printers in Taiwan: An exploitation of the Analytic Network Process. Computers & Mathematics with Applications, 64(6), 1545-1556. Doi: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.camwa.2011.12.082
Vargas, L. G. (1990). An overview of the analytic hierarchy process and its applications. European Journal of Operational Research, 48(1), 2-8.
Voulgaridou, D., Kirytopoulos, K., & Leopoulos, V. (2009). An analytic network process approach for sales forecasting. Operational Research, 9(1), 35-53. Doi: https://doi.org/10.1007/s12351-008-0026-2
Wey, W- M. (2014). The application of dynamic network process to Environment Planning Support Systems. International Journal of Environmental and Ecological Engineering, 8(8), 914-917.
Wu, C-I., Kung, H-Y., Chen, C-H., Kuo, L-C. (2014). An intelligent slope disaster prediction and monitoring system based on WSN and ANP. Expert Systems with Applications, 41, 4554-4562. Doi: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.eswa.2013.12.049
Copyright of all articles published in IJAHP is transferred to Creative Decisions Foundation (CDF). However, the author(s) reserve the following:
- All proprietary rights other than copyright, such as patent rights.
- The right to grant or refuse permission to third parties to republish all or part of the article or translations thereof. In case of whole articles, such third parties must obtain permission from CDF as well. However, CDF may grant rights with respect to journal issues as a whole.
- The right to use all or parts of this article in future works of their own, such as lectures, press releases, reviews, textbooks, or reprint books.
- The authors affirm that the article has been neither copyrighted nor published, that it is not being submitted for publication elsewhere, and that if the work is officially sponsored, it has been released for open publication.
The only exception to the statements in the paragraph above is the following: If an article published in IJAHP contains copyrighted material, such as a teaching case, as an appendix, then the copyright (and all commercial rights) of such material remains with the original copyright holder.
CDF will receive permission for publication of copyrighted material in IJAHP. This permission is not transferable to third parties. Permission to make electronic and paper copies of part or all of the articles, including all computer files that are linked to the articles, for personal or classroom use is granted without fee provided that copies are not made or distributed for profit or commercial advantage.
This permission does not apply to previously copyrighted material, such as teaching cases. In paper copies of the article, the copyright notice and the title of the publication and its date should be visible. To copy otherwise is permitted provided that a per-copy fee is paid.
To republish, to post on servers, or redistribute to lists requires that you post a link to the IJAHP article, which is available in open access delivery mode. Do not upload the article itself.
Authors are permitted to present a talk, based on a paper submitted to or accepted by IJAHP, at a conference where the paper would not be published in a copyrighted publication either before or after the conference and where the author did not assign copyright to the conference or related publisher.