AN AHP APPLICATION IN THE INVESTMENT SELECTION PROBLEM OF SMALL HYDROPOWER PLANTS IN TURKEY
##plugins.themes.bootstrap3.article.main##
##plugins.themes.bootstrap3.article.sidebar##
http://orcid.org/0000-0002-2171-2299
Abstract
Turkey is a country that has had to deal with high electricity consumption due to its rapid growth and development. Attempts have been made to address this increase in demand by increasing the electricity supply by means such as boosting resources by privatization. The electricity generation sector has been privatized in Turkey; hence investors have been looking for the most appropriate electricity generation projects for a long while. Therefore, researchers and practitioners should focus on how the most suitable small hydropower plant project (SHPP) investments can be selected. In this study, the Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) was applied to make the most appropriate and satisfying decision according to the decision makers, experts or investors for a SHPP investment from amongst some alternative SHPP investments in Turkey. All of these SHPPs were assumed to be in the pre-development investment stage, which indicated that their pre-feasibility and feasibility studies had not been presented or taken into consideration until this study was performed. This main constraint forced the researchers to obtain the data and information from the information forms such as the application document to the General Directorate of State Hydraulic Works during the data and information gathering process. The AHP model of this study was structured in four levels with five main criteria, seventeen basic criteria and five alternatives on the Super Decisions Software. The results indicated that Alternative 1 and Alternative 5 should be primarily investigated in detail in subsequent SHPP investment investigation steps.
How to Cite
Downloads
##plugins.themes.bootstrap3.article.details##
Analytic Hierarchy Process, investment, pre-development investment stage, small hydropower plant project, Turkey
ACM Digital Library (2015). http://dl.acm.org/ accessed on 04/04/2015.
ASCE Online Research Library (2015). http://ascelibrary.org/ accessed on 04/04/2015.
Bajaj, J.L., Mukherjee, N., & Kulkarni, A.V. (2007). Grid-connected Small Hydropower (SHP) Development: Regulatory issues and challenges. International Conference on Small Hydropower, Hydro Sri Lanka, 22-24.
Beraković, B., Pavlin, Z., & Štefanac, S. (2009). Small Hydro–A Part of Water Management. International Symposium on Water Management and Hydraulic Engineering, Ohrid, Macedonia, 1-5 September 2009.
Boone, H.N., & Boone, D.A. (2012). Analyzing Likert data. Journal of Extension, 2TOT2, 50(2).
Cambridge Journals Online (2015). http://journals.cambridge.org/ accessed on 04/04/2015.
Chandran, V.G.R., Sharma, S., & Madhavan, K. (2010). Electricity consumption-growth nexus: The case of Malaysia. Energy Policy, 38(1), 606–612.
Cook, P. (2011). Infrastructure, rural electrification and development. Energy for Sustainable Development, 15(3), 304–313.
Costa, H.G., & Correa, P.S. (2010). Construction of an AHP-based model to catch criteria weights in post-occupancy evaluation. International Journal of the Analytic Hierarchy Process, 2(1), 1936–6744.
Coyle, G. (2004). The Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP). USA: Pearson Education Limited.
Dalgaard, C.J., & Strulik, H. (2011). Energy distribution and economic growth. Resource and Energy Economics, 33(4), 782–797.
Dave, H.K., Desai, K.P. & Raval, H.K. (2012). A decision support system for tool electrode selection for electro discharge machining process using the Analytic Hierarchy Process. International Journal of the Analytic Hierarchy Process, 4(2), 89–103.
Demirbas, A. (2002). Turkey’s energy overview beginning in the twenty-first century. Energy Conversion and Management, 43, 1877–1887.
Directory of Open Access Journals (DOAJ) (2015). http://doaj.org/ accessed on 04/04/2015.
Dragu, C., Sels, T., & Belmans, R. (2010). Small hydro power-state of the art and applications. ESAT-ELEN, Energy Institute, Leuven, Belgium.
DSI (The General Directorate of State Hydraulic Works) (2013). http://www.dsi.gov.tr accessed in 2013.
EC (European Commission) (2014). http://ec.europa.eu/research/energy/eu/index_en.cfm?pg=research-hydropower accessed on 02/09/2014.
EIA (U.S. Energy Information Administration) (2013). http://www.eia.gov/tools/glossary/ accessed on 05/09/2013.
Eliasson, J., & Ludvigsson, G. (2000). Load factor of hydropower plants and its importance in planning and design. 11th International Seminar On Hydro Power Plants, Hydros Future in Changing Markets, 15-17 November 2000, University of Technology, Vienna, Austria.
Emerald Insight (2015). http://www.emeraldinsight.com/ accessed on 04/04/2015.
EMRA (Republic of Turkey Energy Market Regulatory Authority) (2013). http://www.emra.gov.tr/ or http://www.epdk.gov.tr.
EREC (European Renewable Energy Council) (2012). REN21 Renewables 2012 Global Status Report. European Focus, Paris, France.
ESHA (European Small Hydropower Association) (2004). Guide on how to develop a small hydropower plant. Belgium.
ESHA (2005). Brochure on environmental integration of small hydropower plants. Belgium.
ESHA (European Small Hydropower Association), SERO (Swedish Renewable Energy Association), & LHA (Lithuanian Hydropower Association). (2008). Small Hydro Energy Efficient Promotion Campaign Action (SHERPA) Project, Strategic study for development of small hydropower in the European Union brochure. Belgium.
Front Line (2005). Protection manual for human rights defenders. Ireland: The International Foundation for the Protection of Human Rights Defenders.
Gawlik, R. (2008). Preliminary criteria reduction for the application of Analytic Hierarchy Process method. Munich Personal RePEc Archive MPRA, 45348.
Google Scholar (2015). http://scholar.google.com.tr/ accessed on 04/04/2015.
Hall, D.G. (2003). Estimation of economic parameters of U.S. hydropower resources. Idaho Falls, Idaho: Idaho National Engineering and Environmental Laboratory.
IHA (International Hydropower Association), International Commission on Large Dams, International Energy Agency, Canadian Hydropower Association. (2000). Hydropower and the world's energy future, the role of hydropower in bringing clean, renewable, energy to the world, Paris, France.
International Journal of the Analytic Hierarchy Process (IJAHP) (2015). http://www.ijahp.org/index.php/IJAHP accessed on 04/04/2015.
Investopedia US (2014). http://www.investopedia.com/ accessed on 06/09/2014.
IWA (IWA Water Wiki) (2013). http://www.iwawaterwiki.org/ accessed on 05/09/2013.
Kong, F., & Liu, H. (2005). Applying fuzzy analytic hierarchy process to evaluate success factors of e-commerce. International Journal of Information and Systems Sciences, 1(3-4), 406–412.
Kruger, H.A., & Hattingh, J.M. (2006). A combined AHP-GP model to allocate internal auditing time to projects. ORiON, 22 (1), 59–76.
Kurien, J., & Sinha, A.K. (2006). Small hydro power - Nabard's involvement and future outlook. National Bank for Agriculture and Rural Development Mumbai, Himalayan Small Hydropower Summit, October 12-13, 2006, Dehradun.
Lako, P. (2003). Hydropower development with a focus on Asia and Western Europe. Overview in the framework of VLEEM 2, ECN and Verbund plan, The Netherlands.
Likert, R. (1932). A technique for the measurement of attitudes (Archives of Psychology, No: 140). New York, The Science Press.
Miller, G.A., (1956). The magical number seven, plus or minus two: some limits on our capacity for processing information. The Psychological Review, 63, 81–97.
Mladineo, N., Margeta, J., Brans, J.P., & Mareschal, B. (1987). Multicriteria ranking of alternative locations for small scale hydro plants. European Journal of Operational Research, 31(2), 215–222.
Moreira, J.R., & Poole, A.D. (1993). Hydropower and its constraints. In: Johansson
T.B., H. Kelly, A.K.N. Reddy and R.H. Williams (Eds). Renewable energy: sources for fuels and electricity, Island Press, Washington D.C., USA, pp. 73-120.
Saaty, T.L. (1980). The Analytic Hierarchy Process. New York, USA: McGraw-Hill.
Saaty, T.L. (1987). The Analytic Hierarchy Process-What it is and how it is used. Mathematical Modelling, 9(3–5), 161–176.
Saaty, T.L. (1990). How to make a decision: The Analytic Hierarchy Process. European Journal of Operational Research, 48, 9–26.
Saaty, T.L. (2008). Decision making with the Analytic Hierarchy Process. International Journal of Services Sciences, 1(1), 83–98.
Saaty, T.L. (2010). The Eigenvector in lay language. International Journal of the Analytic Hierarchy Process, 2(2), 163–169.
Saaty, T.L. (2011). The serious omission of comparisons in Aristotle’s laws of thought. International Journal of the Analytic Hierarchy Process, 3(1), 180–181.
Saracoglu, B.O. (2015). An experimental research study on the solution of a private small hydropower plant investments selection problem by ELECTRE III/IV, Shannon’s Entropy, and Saaty’s subjective criteria weighting. Advances in Decision Sciences, 2015, Article ID 548460.
DOI:10.1155/2015/548460.
Saxena, P. (2007). Small hydro development in India. International Conference on Small Hydropower, Hydro Sri Lanka, 1–6.
Science Direct (2015). http://www.sciencedirect.com/ accessed on 04–05/04/2015.
Shiffrin, R.M., Nosofsky, R.M., (1994). Seven plus or minus two: a commentary on capacity limitations. Psychological Review, 101(2), 357–361.
Silva, A.C., Nascimento, L.P., Ribeiro, J.R & Belderrain, C.N. (2009). ANP and ratings model applied to SSP. Proceedings of the International Symposium on the Analytic Hierarchy Process, Pittsburgh, PA, 10, 1–11.
Taylor & Francis Journal (2015). http://www.tandfonline.com/ accessed on 05/04/2015.
TCMB (The Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey) (2013). http://www.tcmb.gov.tr accessed on 08/09/2013.
Topcu, Y.I., & Ulengin, F. (2004). Energy for future: an integrated decision aid for the case of Turkey. Energy, 29, 137–154.
United Nations (2013). http://www.un.org/en/terrorism/index.shtml accessed on 09/09/2013.
UNODC (United Nations Office on Drugs and Crime) (2013). http://www.unodc.org/ accessed in 2013.
USGS (U.S. Geological Survey) (2013). http://www.usgs.gov/ accessed on 05/09/2013.
Wikipedia (2014). http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Geographical_regions_of_Turkey accessed on 02/09/2014.
Wolfram Research (2014). http://mathworld.wolfram.com/GeometricMean.html accessed on 2/09/2014.
World Bank (2013). http://data.worldbank.org accessed on 05/09/2013
World Bank (2015). http://data.worldbank.org/indicator/SP.POP.GROW/countries?page=1&display=default & http://data.worldbank.org/indicator/NY.GNP.MKTP.KD.ZG/countries/1W?display=default accessed on 04/03/2015 (added during 2nd revision of this manuscript)
Yoon, K.P.; & Hwang, C.L. (1995). Multiple attribute decision making an introduction. London, UK: Sage Publications.
Copyright of all articles published in IJAHP is transferred to Creative Decisions Foundation (CDF). However, the author(s) reserve the following:
- All proprietary rights other than copyright, such as patent rights.
- The right to grant or refuse permission to third parties to republish all or part of the article or translations thereof. In case of whole articles, such third parties must obtain permission from CDF as well. However, CDF may grant rights with respect to journal issues as a whole.
- The right to use all or parts of this article in future works of their own, such as lectures, press releases, reviews, textbooks, or reprint books.
- The authors affirm that the article has been neither copyrighted nor published, that it is not being submitted for publication elsewhere, and that if the work is officially sponsored, it has been released for open publication.
The only exception to the statements in the paragraph above is the following: If an article published in IJAHP contains copyrighted material, such as a teaching case, as an appendix, then the copyright (and all commercial rights) of such material remains with the original copyright holder.
CDF will receive permission for publication of copyrighted material in IJAHP. This permission is not transferable to third parties. Permission to make electronic and paper copies of part or all of the articles, including all computer files that are linked to the articles, for personal or classroom use is granted without fee provided that copies are not made or distributed for profit or commercial advantage.
This permission does not apply to previously copyrighted material, such as teaching cases. In paper copies of the article, the copyright notice and the title of the publication and its date should be visible. To copy otherwise is permitted provided that a per-copy fee is paid.
To republish, to post on servers, or redistribute to lists requires that you post a link to the IJAHP article, which is available in open access delivery mode. Do not upload the article itself.
Authors are permitted to present a talk, based on a paper submitted to or accepted by IJAHP, at a conference where the paper would not be published in a copyrighted publication either before or after the conference and where the author did not assign copyright to the conference or related publisher.