##plugins.themes.bootstrap3.article.main##

##plugins.themes.bootstrap3.article.sidebar##

Published Dec 31, 2010
Sukulpat Khumpaisal Mohd Noor Nazali Zairul Musa Nisham Andrew David Ross

Abstract

This paper aims to introduce an Analytic Network Process (ANP) as an innovative tool to support the decision makers or project managers to deal with the potential risks of mega-construction projects. Risks assessment criteria used to accomplish the ANP calculation was based on both a review of the literature and related experience against Social, Technological, Economic, Ecological and Political (STEEP) requirements. A large airport terminal, London Heathrow Terminal 5, was chosen as a case study to demonstrate the effectiveness of the ANP model. The result reveals that ANP is an effective tool to support developers to make decisions based on risks assessment during their feasibility analysis. The ANP model proved its efficiency, and can be adopted by construction practitioners to suit the project requirements in order to assess risks in the mega-projects. However, it is recommended additional study is needed to assess risks in mega-projects.


http://dx.doi.org/10.13033/ijahp.v2i2.43

Downloads

Download data is not yet available.

##plugins.themes.bootstrap3.article.details##

Keywords

Analytic Network Process (ANP), Mega-project, Risk Assessment, STEEP Factors

References
ACT Insurance Authority (2004). Guide to risk management: AS/NZS 4360: 2004 risk
management standard, Australian Capital Territory Insurance Authority.
Adair, A., Hutchison, N. (2005). The reporting of risk in real estate appraisal property
risk scoring. Journal of Property Investment and Finance, 23 (3), 254-268.
Akintoye, S.A., MacLeod, J.M. (1997). Risk analysis and management in construction.
International Journal of Project Management, 15 (1), 31-38.
Arthurson, K. (2001). Achieving Social Justice in Estate Regeneration: The Impact of
Physical Image Construction. Housing Studies, 16 (6), 807-826.
Atkinson, R. (1999). Discourses of Partnership and Empowerment in Contemporary
British Urban Regeneration. Urban Studies, 36 (1), 59-72
BAA (2009). “Terminal 5 Information”, Leaflet Information, www.heathrowairport.com
http://www.baa.com/assets//B2CPortal/Static%20Files/T5_Info_packnew.pdf accessed:
January 26, 2009.
Baccarini, D., & Archer, R. (2001). The risk ranking of projects: a methodology.
International Journal of Project Management, 19, 139-145.
Bahar, J.F. & Crandall, C.K. (1990). Systematic Risk Management Approach for
Construction projects. Journal of Construction Engineering and Management, 116 (3),
533-546.
Baum, A., & Crosby, N. (2008) “Principles of Investment Analysis” in Property
Investment Appraisal. Oxford: Blackwell Publishing.
Beltran, P.A., Gonzales, F.C., Ferrando, J.P.P., & Pozo, F.R. (2010). An ANP-based
approach for the selection of photovoltaic solar power plant investment projects”, Journal
of Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, 14 (1), 249-264.
Boyd, J., Harrington, W., & Macauley, K.M. (1996). The effects of ecological liability on
industrial real estate development. Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, 12,
37-58.
Brown, R.G. & Matysiak, A.G. (2000). “Risk, return and diversification”, in Real Estate
Investment: A Capital Market Approach, Essex, Financial Times: Prentice Hall
Brown, W., A. and Pitt, R., M. (2001), “Measuring the facilities management influence in
delivering sustainable airport development and expansion”, Facilities, 19 (5/6), pp.222-
232
Case, K.E., Shiller, R.J., & Weiss, A.N. (1995). Mortgage Default Risk and Real Estate
Prices: The Use of Index-Based Futures and Options in Real Estate. Journal of Housing
Research, 7 (2), 243-258.
Chapman, A. (2008). PEST analysis method and examples with free PEST template,
www.businessballs.com, http://www.businessballs.com/pestanalysisfreetemplate.htm, accessed
March 23, 2009
Chen, Z., Li, H., Wong, C.T.C. (2005) Ecological Planning: an analytic network process
model for environmentally conscious construction planning. Journal of Construction
Engineering and Management, 131 (1) 92-101.
Chen, Z., & Khumpaisal, S. (2009). An Analytic Network Process for Risks Assessment
in Sustainable Commercial Real Estate Development. Journal of Property Investment
and Finance, Vol. 27 Issue 3, pp.238 - 258
Choi, H.H, Cho, N.H, & Seo, J.W. (2004). Risk assessment methodology for
underground construction projects. Journal of Construction Engineering and
Management, (March–April), 258-272
Clarke, J.C., & Varma, S. (1999). Strategic risk management: the new competitive edge.
Journal of Long Range Planning, 32 (4), 414-424.
Commission for Healthcare Audit and Inspection (CHAI) (2006) Criteria for assessing
core standards in 2006/2007. Commission for Healthcare Audit and Inspection, London.
Couch, C., & Dennemann, A. (2000). Urban regeneration and sustainable development in
Britain: the example of the Liverpool Ropewalks Partnership. Cities, 17 (2), 137-147
Crossland, B., et al., (1992). “Estimating engineering risk” in Royal Society, The Royal
Society, London, UK
Crown Copyright. (2008) “Building Regulations” Planning Portal. http://
http://www.planningportal.gov.uk/england/professionals/en/4000000000001.html
Danter (2007). A Sample Lodging Analysis in the City of Grove, Ohio. Danter Company,
Columbus, OH 43215, USA. http://www.danter.com/PRODUCT/samplodg.pdf
FSA (2005). Strengthening capital standards, Financial Services Authority (FSA),
London. http://www.fsa.gov.uk/pubs/cp/cp05_03.pdf (30 Dec. 07).
Flyvbjerg, B., Bruzelius, N. & Rothengatter, W. (2003). Megaprojects and risk: An
anatomy of ambition. Cambridge University Press.
Gehner, E., Halman, J.I.M., Jonge H. de (2006). “Risk management in the Dutch real
estate development sector: a survey”, In D. Amaratunga, R. Haigh, R. Vrijhoef, M.
Hamblett, & C. van den Broek (Eds.), Proceedings of the 6thInternational postgraduate
research conference in the built and human environment, University of Salford, UK. pp.
541-552.
Greater Toronto Airports Authority (2005). Airport Construction Code, fourth edition.
Greater Toronto Airports Authority, Toronto, Ontario, Canada.
Hargitay, S. & Yu, S.M. (1993). Decision criteria – return and risk, Property Investment
Decisions: A quantitative Approach. London: E&FN Spon.
Harrop, D.O. & Nixon, A.J. (1999). Ecological Assessment in Practice, first edition.
London: Routhledge.
He, Z. (1995). Risk management for overseas construction projects. International Journal
of Project Management, 13 (4), pp. 231-237.
ioMosaic (2002). Designing and Effective Risk Matrix: An ioMosaic Corporation
Whitepaper. ioMosaic Corporation, Houston, TX 77057 USA.
http://archives1.iomosaic.com/whitepapers/risk-ranking.pdf (30 Dec. 07).
Jones, C., & Watkins, C. (1996). Urban regeneration and sustainable markets Urban
Studies, 33 (7), 1129-1140.
Khalafallah, A., Taha, M., & El-Said, M. (2005). Estimating residential projects cost
contingencies using a belief network. Proceedings of Project Management: Vision for
Better Future Conference, Cairo, Egypt, November 21-22, 2005.
http://people.cecs.ucf.edu/khalafal/publications/publications_files/EstimatingContingenci
es.pdf (30 Dec. 07).
Khumpaisal, S. (2007). Risks in the Construction Project Procurement Process and
Mitigation Methods. Journal of Architectural/Planning Research and Studies, Faculty of
Architecture and Planning, Thamamasat University, 5 (2).
Kindinger, J.P. (2002). The case for quantitative project risk analysis. Tenth Annual
Conference on Quality in the Space and Defence Industries, March 4-5, Florida, USA.
http://www.lanl.gov/orgs/d/d5/documents/case.pdf (30 Dec. 07).
Miller, R., & Lessard, R.D. (2008). Evolving strategy: risk management and the shaping
of mega-project. Decision-Making on Mega-Projects: Cost-Benefit Analysis, Planning
and Innovation, Northampton, MA: Edward Elgar Publishing.
Lister, B., (2008). Heathrow Terminal 5: enhancing Ecological sustainability.
Proceedings of ICE: Civil Engineering 161 (May), 21-24.
Lu, S.H., Lin, C.W., & Ko, P.H. (2007). Application of analytic network process (ANP) in
assessing construction risk of urban bridge project. Proceeding of Second International
Conference on Innovative Computing, Information and Control (ICICIC).
Morrison, L.J. (2007). The STEEP Sectors. University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill,
Learning Resources Website, USA http:// horizon.unc.edu/onramp/ (30 Jan. 08).
Moss, Q.Z., Alho, J., & Alexander, K. (2007). Performance measurement action research.
Journal of Facilities Management, 5 (4), 290-300.
Nabarro, R., & Key, T. (2005). Performance measurement and mega-project lending risk,
in Real estate indicators and financial stability, BIS Papers No. 21, Bank for International
Settlements (BIS), (April), 70-90 http://www.bis.org/publ/bppdf/bispap21.htm (30
Dec. 07).
Nezhad, G.H. & Kathawala, Y. (1990). Risk assessment for international investment.
Management Research News, 13 (1).
Pellman, R., (2008). Heathrow Terminal 5: gaining permission. Proceedings of ICE:
Civil Engineering 161, (May), 21-24.
Project Management Institute (2004). A Guide to the Project Management Body of
Knowledge, third edition. Newtown Square, PA: Project Management Institute, Inc.
Rafele, C., Hillson, D., & Grimalai, S. (2005). “Understanding Project Risk Exposure
Using the Two-Dimensional Risk Breakdown Matrix.” Proceeding papers of 2005
Project Management Institution Global Congress, Edinburgh, Scotland.
Saaty, T.L. (2005). Theory and applications of the analytic network process. Pittsburgh:
RWS Publications.
Sagalyn, L.B. (1990). Real estate risks and the business cycle: evidence from security
markets. The Journal of Real Estate Research, 5 (2), 203-220.
SGP Media Limited (2009). London Heathrow Airport (LHA/EGLL) Terminal 5, United
Kingdom, http://www.airport-technology.com/projects/heathrow5/specs.html (30 Jan 09)
Smith, J. N., Merna, T., & Jobling, P. (2006). Managing risk in construction projects,
second edition. Boston: Blackwell Publishing.
Strischek, D. (2007). Regulatory guidance on real estate risk: mind the gap for great
guidance on good lending. The RMA Journal, (April).
Wolstenholme, A., Fugeman, I., & Hammond, F. (2008). Heathrow Terminal 5: delivery
strategy. Proceedings of ICE: Civil Engineering 161, (May), 10-15.
Section
Articles